Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 July 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
30/1938Z from Region 3772 (S25E59). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01
Aug, 02 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 519 km/s at 30/0453Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 30/0205Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 30/0208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 413 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on days one and two (31 Jul, 01
Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Aug). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (31 Jul, 01 Aug)
and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (02 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 220 Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 210/210/205 90 Day Mean 30 Jul 190
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 025/038 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 021/030-020/030-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 75% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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