Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 July 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
31/0646Z from Region 3768 (S16W71). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02
Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 31/1702Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 31/1412Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 31/1802Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 117 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (01 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (02 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (03
Aug). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (01 Aug)
and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (02 Aug,
03 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 235 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 230/220/220 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 191
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 018/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 020/030-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 40% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |