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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at
01/0709Z from Region 3768 (S16W85). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Aug, 03
Aug, 04 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 01/0026Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 01/0336Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 01/0038Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Aug) and quiet to major
storm levels on days two and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Aug) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 234 Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 235/230/220 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 192
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 013/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 024/031 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 010/010-018/030-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 70% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 156.1 +4.7 |