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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 28/2038Z from Region 3801 (N07W17). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 28/0736Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 28/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 28/0541Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (29 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (30 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (31 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (29 Aug, 30 Aug, 31 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
Class M55%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Aug 212
  Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug 220/215/215
  90 Day Mean        28 Aug 209

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  011/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Aug  022/028
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  013/015-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%10%
Minor storm25%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%20%
Major-severe storm60%25%15%

All times in UTC

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