Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 August 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 27/0943Z from Region 3796 (S04W52). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 346 km/s at 27/1542Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 27/1508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/2022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 255 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Aug), quiet levels on day two (29 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
Class M70%60%60%
Class X20%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Aug 221
  Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug 225/230/235
  90 Day Mean        27 Aug 209

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Aug  008/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  013/014-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%20%
Minor storm15%01%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%30%
Major-severe storm45%15%25%

All times in UTC

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