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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
27/0943Z from Region 3796 (S04W52). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 346 km/s at 27/1542Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 27/1508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
27/2022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 255 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Aug), quiet levels on day
two (29 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Aug).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
| Class M | 70% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 221 Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 225/230/235 90 Day Mean 27 Aug 209
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 013/014-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 15% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/09/14 | X4.54 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/09/14 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/17 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| August 2024 | 215.5 +19 |
| September 2024 | 151.6 -63.9 |
| Last 30 days | 159.7 -53.2 |