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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
02/0759Z from Region 3765 (S11W61). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Aug, 04
Aug, 05 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 01/2310Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 01/2209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/1238Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 107 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on days one and two (03 Aug, 04
Aug) and quiet levels on day three (05 Aug). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug, 05 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 247 Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 245/245/240 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 193
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 022/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 018/030-018/025-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 70% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/08 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 190.1 +23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.9 |