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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 26/0442Z from Region 3761 (S09W86). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 612 km/s at 26/0536Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 25/2328Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 25/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 106 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jul 176
  Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul 170/165/165
  90 Day Mean        26 Jul 186

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jul  019/026
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  014/018-007/008-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%35%
Minor storm20%05%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm60%25%50%

All times in UTC

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