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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 21/2208Z from Region 3796 (S03E26). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 22/0921Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 22/1927Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 22/1422Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Aug 231
  Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug 230/235/240
  90 Day Mean        22 Aug 205

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Aug  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%15%15%

All times in UTC

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