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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
21/2208Z from Region 3796 (S03E26). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 22/0921Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 22/1927Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
22/1422Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 231 Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 230/235/240 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 205
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/11 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 175.7 +9.3 |
| Last 30 days | 164.2 +19.1 |