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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/0602Z from Region 3796 (S03E26). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 21/2041Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/2044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/1532Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 152 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (23 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (24 Aug).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 239 Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 240/240/245 90 Day Mean 21 Aug 204
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 011/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |