Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
16/2357Z from Region 3825 (S16E20). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (18 Sep,
19 Sep) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (20 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 650 km/s at 17/0700Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 17/0143Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-18 nT at 17/0039Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 33 pfu at 17/1050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2394 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (19 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (20
Sep). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (18 Sep)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (19
Sep, 20 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 165 Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 162/162/155 90 Day Mean 17 Sep 216
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 019/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 045/072 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 011/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/09/14 | X4.54 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/09/14 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/17 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
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| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| August 2024 | 215.5 +19 |
| September 2024 | 151.6 -63.9 |
| Last 30 days | 159.7 -53.2 |