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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
18/0344Z from Region 3828 (S13E47). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 546 km/s at 17/2326Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 17/2148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
18/1055Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 17/2150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 268 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (19 Sep, 21
Sep) and quiet levels on day two (20 Sep). Protons have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21
Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Sep 163 Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 162/155/155 90 Day Mean 18 Sep 216
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 039/064 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 007/008-005/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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