Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 October 2024

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 15/1833Z from Region 3854 (S05W33). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (16 Oct) and likely to be moderate on days two and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 15/0310Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/2053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 15/1654Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 465 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (18 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (16 Oct).

III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct

Class M	55%	55%	55%
Class X	10%	05%	05%
Proton	15%	05%	05%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       15 Oct 172
  Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 170/165/160
  90 Day Mean        15 Oct 221

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Oct  017/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  017/025-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	40%	20%	10%
Minor storm	25%	05%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	10%	15%	15%
Minor storm	25%	30%	20%
Major-severe storm	65%	25%	15%

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 20:16 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (576.2 km/sec.)
The density of the solar wind is moderate (20.34 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (15.93nT), the direction is North (2.87nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-70nT)

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