Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 August 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
06/0303Z from Region 3781 (N13E53). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08
Aug, 09 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 528 km/s at 06/0954Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
06/1953Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/0607Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 05/2140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (07 Aug, 09
Aug) and quiet levels on day two (08 Aug). Protons have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09
Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 270 Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 235/240/230 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 195
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 007/008-006/006-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |