Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 August 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
07/1350Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Aug, 09
Aug, 10 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 591 km/s at 06/2149Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
07/1513Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/0823Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 114 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (09 Aug) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (10
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Aug 303 Predicted 08 Aug-10 Aug 270/280/275 90 Day Mean 07 Aug 196
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Aug 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Aug 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 006/006-020/032-029/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Aug to 10 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 65% | 65% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Saturday, 14 September 2024
X4.5 solar flare with a fast coronal mass ejection
Thursday, 12 September 2024
G3 geomagnetic storm watch due to CME passage
Monday, 12 August 2024
Severe G4 geomagnetic storm
Latest forum messages
AR13825 2024/09/14 CME 528Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1440Some weird thing on farside seismic signature 7Sunspot Latitudes at or near Solar Maximum 52Quick question 1
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/09/14 | X4.54 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/09/14 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/17 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| August 2024 | 215.5 +19 |
| September 2024 | 154.3 -61.2 |
| Last 30 days | 161.6 -51.3 |