Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
03/1602Z from Region 3813 (S22E44). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05
Sep, 06 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 585 km/s at 03/0032Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
03/0243Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/0557Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 03/1245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 565 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep). Protons are likely to cross
threshold on day one (04 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
days two and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 60% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 242 Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 245/250/240 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 212
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 010/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/23 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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