Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/0255Z from Region 3813 (S23E35). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 04/1644Z. Total IMF reached 26
nT at 04/1105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
04/1558Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 04/0330Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1308 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Sep, 06 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (07 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 262 Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 260/250/240 90 Day Mean 04 Sep 213
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 010/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 009/010-008/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |