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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 04/0255Z from Region 3813 (S23E35). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 04/1644Z. Total IMF reached 26 nT at 04/1105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 04/1558Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 04/0330Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1308 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Sep, 06 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (07 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Sep 262
  Predicted   05 Sep-07 Sep 260/250/240
  90 Day Mean        04 Sep 213

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep  010/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Sep  011/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep  009/010-008/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm35%25%15%

All times in UTC

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