Viewing archive of Friday, 6 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
06/1919Z from Region 3806 (S11W53). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 06/0001Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 06/1113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
06/0733Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 186 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 249 Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 245/245/250 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 214
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 006/005-008/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/21 | M1.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |