Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X9 event observed at
03/1218Z from Region 3842 (S15W08). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05
Oct, 06 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 407 km/s at 03/1914Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
03/1124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 268 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (04 Oct), minor
storm to severe storm levels on day two (05 Oct) and active to severe
storm levels on day three (06 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 312 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 310/310/310 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 011/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 033/054-048/094-044/072
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 80% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/03 | X9.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/10/06 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/25 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| October 2024 | 194.4 +53 |
| Last 30 days | 152.7 -39.9 |