Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
30/1017Z from Region 3876 (S05W33). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01
Nov, 02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 632 km/s at 30/1509Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 30/0722Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
30/0751Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 74 pfu at 29/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 194 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov). Protons are expected to cross
threshold on day one (31 Oct), are expected to cross threshold on day
two (01 Nov) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (02
Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 99% | 75% | 40% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 270 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 270/270/260 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 006/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/10/31 | M4.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| Last 30 days | 158.2 +8.5 |