Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
31/1254Z from Region 3875 (N28W41). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02
Nov, 03 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 647 km/s at 31/0504Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 31/2014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
31/2057Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 33 pfu at 31/0215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 291 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (01 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (02 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Nov).
Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (01 Nov), have a
chance of crossing threshold on day two (02 Nov) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day three (03 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 90% | 40% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 270 Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 270/270/265 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 006/005-006/008-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |