Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 November 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
27/1246Z from Region 3901 (S09W58). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 372 km/s at 27/1808Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
27/1448Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
27/2018Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 146 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 Nov), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (29 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (30 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 225 Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 220/220/215 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 207
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 015/020-021/028-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 35% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 70% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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