Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 November 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
28/0514Z from Region 3905 (S09W16). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 388 km/s at 28/1713Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
28/0731Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/1711Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 124 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (29 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (01
Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 214 Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 220/220/215 90 Day Mean 28 Nov 207
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 019/024-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 40% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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