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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
29/2030Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 29/0157Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 29/0329Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
29/1958Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 150 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Nov) and quiet levels on
days two and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 220 Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 215/210/210 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 207
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 009/010-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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