Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 November 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
30/0906Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec,
03 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 30/1850Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 29/2315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 104 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (02 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (03 Dec).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 204 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 205/205/205 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 207
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 006/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/04 | M2.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
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| Last 30 days | 131.3 -30.2 |