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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 03/1524Z from Region 3869 (S18W74). There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (04 Nov) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (05 Nov) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (06 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 02/2345Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 03/0432Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 02/2132Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 02/2305Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (05 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (06 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (04 Nov) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (05 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
Class M75%65%50%
Class X30%20%10%
Proton20%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Nov 241
  Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov 240/230/230
  90 Day Mean        03 Nov 222

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Nov  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  010/010-009/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm45%25%20%

All times in UTC

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