Viewing archive of Monday, 7 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Proton | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 277 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 260/255/250 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 013/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 030/050 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 022/030-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Umeå
Latest news
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Coronal hole faces Earth
X2.0 solar flare from sunspot region 4001
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Latest alerts
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Yesterday around 16 UTC an M1.2 solar flare took place around sunspot region 4028. The solar flare triggered a filament eruption which erupted from the center of the earth-facing solar disk.
12:18 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index
The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 75GW at 13:10 UTC
03:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 03:35 UTC
03:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6) Threshold Reached: 02:59 UTC
01:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 01:36 UTC
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/21 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/21 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 140.3 -14.3 |
| Last 30 days | 141.7 -9.5 |