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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 05 0510 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
04/0140Z from Region 3883 (S06E37). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06
Nov, 07 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s at 04/0016Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 03/2337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 118 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to active
levels on day two (06 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(07 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 242 Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 240/230/225 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 011/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 010/012-012/018-022/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 55% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |