Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
26/0315Z from Region 3938 (N21E40). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 454 km/s at 25/2146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 867 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (28 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (29 Dec).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 256 Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 255/260/255 90 Day Mean 26 Dec 205
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 009/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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