Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 November 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
26/0023Z from Region 3906 (S16E19). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 392 km/s at 26/0217Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 26/0814Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
26/0048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 165 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (28 Nov) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (29
Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (27 Nov, 28 Nov, 29 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Nov 222 Predicted 27 Nov-29 Nov 220/220/215 90 Day Mean 26 Nov 207
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Nov 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 006/005-015/020-021/028
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 60% | 70% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Latest forum messages
Coronal mass ejection impact and G4 geomagnetic storm 10 & 11 October 2024 931>500 meV 24jsoc 9Nasa engineers meet “ smarter every day” 1Ask your obscure/"stupid" space weather questions. 72
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/27 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 145.9 -20.5 |
| Last 30 days | 151.8 -2.9 |