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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at
23/1112Z from Region 3932 (S17E27). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 22/2252Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 22/2251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/1632Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 23/0125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1540 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Dec), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (25 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three
(26 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 238 Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 230/230/230 90 Day Mean 23 Dec 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 015/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 008/010-018/025-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 65% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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