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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 29/1424Z from Region 3842 (S15E45). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 29/2044Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 29/1451Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 29/1951Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 574 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Sep) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Sep 197
  Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct 200/200/200
  90 Day Mean        29 Sep 214

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Sep  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  009/010-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%15%15%
Major-severe storm45%15%15%

All times in UTC

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