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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
09/0156Z from Region 3848 (N12W25). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (10 Oct, 11 Oct)
and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three
(12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 09/0820Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 08/2223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 08/2238Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1072 pfu at 09/2100Z. Protons greater than 100
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 09/0805Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 363 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (10 Oct), minor storm
to severe storm levels on day two (11 Oct) and active to minor storm
levels on day three (12 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on
day one (10 Oct), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (11
Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (12 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 70% |
| Class X | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Proton | 75% | 50% | 30% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 220 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 245/240/235 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 029/053 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 016/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 070/125-086/122-030/042
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 80% | 80% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |