Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 October 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 09/2312Z from Region 3842 (S13W90). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (11 Oct, 12 Oct) and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three (13 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 833 km/s at 10/1616Z. Total IMF reached 39 nT at 10/1624Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -29 nT at 10/1607Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1811 pfu at 10/1515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 937 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at minor storm to severe storm levels on day one (11 Oct), active to minor storm levels on day two (12 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and two (11 Oct, 12 Oct) and are expected to cross threshold on day three (13 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
Class M75%75%70%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton99%99%80%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Oct 216
  Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 215/215/215
  90 Day Mean        10 Oct 224

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  015/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Oct  044/081
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  074/122-030/042-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%40%25%
Minor storm30%35%05%
Major-severe storm65%15%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active01%05%15%
Minor storm05%20%30%
Major-severe storm95%75%30%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå
The density of the solar wind is moderate (22.99 p/cm3)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.43nT), the direction is slightly South (-0.36nT).

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