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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 13/0656Z from Region 3811 (S13W0*). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 619 km/s at 13/0104Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 12/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 13/2015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and three (14 Sep, 16 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (15 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Sep 186
  Predicted   14 Sep-16 Sep 185/180/180
  90 Day Mean        13 Sep 217

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep  036/078
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Sep  025/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  017/024-012/015-016/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%40%
Minor storm25%10%25%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm65%45%65%

All times in UTC

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