Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X4 event observed at
14/1529Z from Region 3825 (S18E48). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 518 km/s at 13/2102Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 14/1543Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 13/2119Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 14/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 856 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (15 Sep), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (16 Sep) and quiet to major storm levels
on day three (17 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep, 17 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 172 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 022/031 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 020/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 013/018-045/070-019/028
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 50% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 01% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 90% | 80% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/21 | M1.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |