Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 August 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/1033Z from Region 3784 (N15W47). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 17/1631Z. Total IMF
reached 24 nT at 17/1628Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-21 nT at 17/1622Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 272 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (18 Aug), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (19 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (20
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 230 Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 220/215/215 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 020/025-011/010-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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