Viewing archive of Monday, 28 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
27/2324Z from Region 3878 (N18E72). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30
Oct, 31 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 28/0447Z. Total IMF
reached 23 nT at 28/0423Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 28/0436Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 363 pfu at 28/1350Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (30 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (31 Oct).
Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (29 Oct), are
expected to cross threshold on day two (30 Oct) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (31 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 99% | 75% | 40% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 255 Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 265/275/270 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 221
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 022/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 014/015-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/26 | M7.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
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| Last 30 days | 122 -35.7 |