Viewing archive of Monday, 28 October 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 27/2324Z from Region 3878 (N18E72). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 28/0447Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 28/0423Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -19 nT at 28/0436Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 363 pfu at 28/1350Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (30 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (31 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (29 Oct), are expected to cross threshold on day two (30 Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (31 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
Class M75%75%75%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton99%75%40%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Oct 255
  Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct 265/275/270
  90 Day Mean        28 Oct 221

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Oct  022/028
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  014/015-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm50%25%20%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/10/26X1.8
Last M-flare2024/10/29M1.1
Last geomagnetic storm2024/10/12Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
September 2024141.4 -74.1
October 2024154.9 +13.5
Last 30 days154.9 +5.4

This day in history*

Solar flares
12003X14.3
22013X3.37
32000M6.41
42001M5.15
52003M5.04
DstG
12003-350G5
21991-254G4
31963-173G4
41961-169G2
52000-126G2
*since 1994

Social networks