Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
27/1326Z from Region 3878 (N18E72). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29
Oct, 30 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 26/2156Z. Total IMF reached 23
nT at 26/2141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at
26/2146Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 273 pfu at 27/1535Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (28 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (29 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (30 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(28 Oct), are expected to cross threshold on day two (29 Oct) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (30 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 99% | 75% | 40% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 246 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 245/245/245 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 031/045-017/022-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 80% | 65% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |