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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 27/1326Z from Region 3878 (N18E72). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 26/2156Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 26/2141Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 26/2146Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 273 pfu at 27/1535Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (28 Oct), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (29 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (28 Oct), are expected to cross threshold on day two (29 Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (30 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
Class M75%75%75%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton99%75%40%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Oct 246
  Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct 245/245/245
  90 Day Mean        27 Oct 220

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Oct  013/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  031/045-017/022-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%20%
Minor storm35%25%05%
Major-severe storm25%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%15%
Minor storm15%25%30%
Major-severe storm80%65%25%

All times in UTC

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