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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2024
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/0137Z from Region 3889 (S09W57). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 15/2140Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 15/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
16/0255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 346 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (17 Nov, 19
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (18 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (17 Nov,
18 Nov, 19 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 140
Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 140/145/150
90 Day Mean 16 Nov 212
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 009/012-010/008-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 20% | 35% | 25% |
Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 10% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
Major-severe storm | 30% | 50% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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