Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 November 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
17/1059Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (18 Nov) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an
X-class flare on days two and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 397 km/s at 17/0319Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 17/1808Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
17/1119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 691 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (19 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (20 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 55% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 146 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 211
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 010/012-009/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 35% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 156.1 +4.7 |