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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
18/1253Z from Region 3901 (S07E67). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (19 Nov) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an
X-class flare on days two and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 488 km/s at 18/1441Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
18/1327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
18/0220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 528 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 55% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 165 Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 150/150/160 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 210
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 009/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |