Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
15/2024Z from Region 3920 (N22W42). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec,
18 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 15/2003Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 15/0307Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
15/0719Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 113 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (16 Dec, 18
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (17 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 172 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 170/170/170 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 200
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 009/008-012/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/15 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 99.5 -53 |
| Last 30 days | 117.6 -37.8 |