Viewing archive of Monday, 16 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
16/0732Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec,
19 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 15/2304Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 16/0002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
16/0721Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 103 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (18 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (19 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 167 Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 200
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 012/015-007/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnReykjavik
Trondheim
Sundsvall, Umeå
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