Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 November 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 19/0000Z from Region 3889 (S09W95). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 19/1617Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 19/1706Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/1044Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 745 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Nov 157
  Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov 154/154/154
  90 Day Mean        19 Nov 209

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Nov  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  005/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm15%15%35%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå

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