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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 20/1948Z from Region 3897 (S12W90). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 20/0209Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 20/0531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 20/0758Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 146 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (21 Nov, 23 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Nov 163
  Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 160/160/165
  90 Day Mean        20 Nov 209

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  006/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Nov  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  006/005-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%25%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm15%35%35%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Nuuk
Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (677 km/sec.)

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