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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/1948Z from Region 3897 (S12W90). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 20/0209Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 20/0531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
20/0758Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 146 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (21 Nov, 23 Nov) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (22 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 163 Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 209
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 006/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 35% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |