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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 21/1352Z from Region 3901 (S07E24). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 21/1443Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/1333Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/1611Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 29 pfu at 21/2100Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 21/2010Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (22 Nov) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (23 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton99%10%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Nov 166
  Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov 170/175/175
  90 Day Mean        21 Nov 208
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Nov  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  007/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm35%35%35%

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
The solar wind speed is currently high (713.8 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-56nT)

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