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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/1546Z from Region 3905 (S10E66). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 22/1010Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 22/0821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
22/2051Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 125 pfu at 22/0355Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 21/2130Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 180 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Nov,
24 Nov, 25 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (23 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 179 Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 180/180/185 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 207
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov to 25 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 35% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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