Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 October 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at 24/0357Z from Region 3869 (S17E58). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 23/2131Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/0031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/0126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (26 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (27 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Oct 197
  Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct 200/200/205
  90 Day Mean        24 Oct 220

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  013/015-015/018-007/007

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%20%
Minor storm05%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm35%55%30%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå

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