Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at
24/0357Z from Region 3869 (S17E58). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 413 km/s at 23/2131Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 24/0031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
24/0126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Oct), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (26 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (27 Oct).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 197 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 200/200/205 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 013/015-015/018-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 55% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/26 | X1.8 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/10/29 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| October 2024 | 154.9 +13.5 |
| Last 30 days | 154.9 +5.4 |