Viewing archive of Friday, 27 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/2312Z from Region 3839 (S14E73). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 27/0014Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 27/0931Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
27/0838Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 507 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (29 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (30 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 186 Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 185/185/185 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 214
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 006/005-009/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/03 | X9.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/10/06 | M1.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/25 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| October 2024 | 194.4 +53 |
| Last 30 days | 151.8 -38.8 |