Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
25/2312Z from Region 3828 (S11W48). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 546 km/s at 25/2147Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/2157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
25/2104Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1113 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (27 Sep, 28 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on day three (29 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 181 Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 214
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 024/034 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 005/005-006/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep to 29 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/03 | X9.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/10/06 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/25 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| October 2024 | 194.4 +53 |
| Last 30 days | 152.7 -39.9 |